[斯凯拉]BTC 价格突破 7 万美元——本周关于比特币需要了解的 5 件事

比特币以波动和新的历史高点开始了新的一周，因为比特币价格波动仍然牢牢占据主导地位。

这种最大的加密货币已经创下了有史以来最高的周收盘价，但多头在突破更高点时仍然面临着严峻的阻力。

随着价格发现之战愈演愈烈，比特币陷入了一种熟悉的不断变化的状态——关键心理价格水平的抛售压力，加上现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的持续竞价。

本周哪个将占据上风？

很少有人对 ETF 购买带来的影响规模做好准备。

即使是长期看涨的人也在重新评估他们认为 BTC/USD 在未来几年可能的走势，从长期来看，100 万美元越来越被视为保守。

相反，其他人警告说，加速的牛市可能会比预期更早引发宏观比特币价格见顶。

临近目前，美国宏观数据即将公布，这将为美联储即将做出的利率决定“定下基调”。

与此同时，随着比特币处于十字路口，矿商们正在抓紧时间在四月份的区块补贴减半之前锁定利润。

Cointelegraph 在每周潜在 BTC 价格波动催化剂概要中仔细研究了这些主题以及更多内容。

比特币价格发现之前创下每周新高

比特币在 3 月 10 日的周收盘价中经历了经典的波动，结果很容易创下历史最高水平。

Cointelegraph Markets Pro 和 TradingView 的数据证实，比特币/美元在 69,000 美元的高位未能持续，几分钟后急剧下行，跌至 67,120 美元。

BTC/美元 1 小时图。

来源：TradingView

与上周触及的 69,000 美元区域相呼应，随后出现了缓解性反弹——最终将比特币在 3 月 11 日的亚洲交易时段创下历史新高。

受欢迎的交易商 Skew 在 X（前身为 Twitter）上的回应中写道：“由于缺乏现货出价，价格仍在 7 万美元左右下跌。”

Skew 强调 63,500 美元至 65,500 美元之间的区域是保持当前上涨趋势的关键，如果接下来出现更大幅度的下跌的话。

“开始看到 6 万美元起的更可观的出价，可能是暴跌保护出价，”他在谈到全球最大交易所币安的现货订单簿行为时说道。

“由于缺乏被动的现货买家，整体价格大幅下跌。”

Adding to the picture, Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, revealed the on-chain movement of coins previously dormant for up to a decade.

He referenced the Spent Output Age Bands metric, which groups coins involved in transactions by how long they were previously stationary on the network.

“Before the drawdown, there was a movement of 2,877 BTC with an age of 7 to 10 years,” he wrote about the weekly close.

Bitcoin Spent Output Age Bands. Source: Maartunn on X

CPI week looms with Fed rate cut bets absent

Another “classic” week in terms of U.S. macroeconomic data is due to be headlined by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for February.

Due on March 12, CPI makes for volatile short-term trading across risk assets, while Bitcoin offers mixed reactions.

The current narrative around inflation and Fed policy remains disjointed. Markets are eager to see interest rate cuts, while Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell last week, are attempting to cool their expectations.

The nature of CPI figures and other data points will thus form a key reference point, with the next Fed meeting just over one week away.

“A hot CPI inflation report this week would really set the tone of the March Fed meeting,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of its weekly diary post on X.

“Huge week ahead.”

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

According to the latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, hardly anyone sees a surprise rate cut at this month’s gathering, with the odds at a mere 3% at the time of writing.

Other key data to come this week include the Producer Price Index, or PPI, along with jobless claims on March 13 and 15, respectively.

ETF Bitcoin buyer pressure seen expanding

Bitcoin market observers are waiting for one thing as the week begins: the resumption of buying by the spot ETFs.

Now the most successful ETF launch in history, the nine participants have presided over a BTC price transformation that many see continuing.

While reservations are visible, ETFs may see waning demand and thus no longer buoy the price trajectory, so a sense of optimism among institutions now stands out.

Last week, Cathie Wood, CEO of asset manager ARK Invest, said that the firm’s $1-million BTC price target for 2023 had been “brought forward.”

“No platform has approved Bitcoin yet, so all of this price action has happened before they approve it, and so we haven’t even begun,” she said about the absence of major U.S. wirehouses such as Morgan Stanley and UBS.

As Cointelegraph subsequently reported, industry insiders are gearing up for this to happen and the price impact that could follow.

In a memo on March 9, crypto-native asset manager Bitwise listed “major warehouses,” “institutional consultants” and “large corporations” as being next in line to add BTC exposure.

“根据目前的趋势，我怀疑我们将在 2024 年第二季度看到来自这三个群体的首次大量资金流入，而且我认为，随着这些投资者对新产品更加满意，这些资金流入将在全年加速，”首席投资马特·霍根警官写道。

比特币 ETF 净流量。

来源：阿波罗

矿商外流如雨后春笋般涌现，普埃尔市盈率接近多年高点

比特币在下一次减半之前创下了历史新高，这是其历史上独一无二的事件。

这让很多人感到惊讶，矿工似乎也不例外。

尽管即将到来的减半使他们面临的每个区块“新”比特币减少了 50%，但矿商们在高位附近大幅提高了抛售量。

CryptoQuant 数据显示，这种现象在 2024 年一直存在，自 1 月 11 日 ETF 推出以来，矿工钱包就开始流出。

比特币矿工资金外流。

来源：CryptoQuant

与此同时，CryptoQuant 撰稿人 Julio Moreno 在 X 上透露，3 月 7 日的每日总收入达到 7590 万美元，创历史第二高。

比特币矿工每日收入。

资料来源：X 上的 Julio Moreno

“随着最近比特币价格的飙升，矿工收入迅速增加，”交易套件 DecenTrader 3 月 11 日继续谈论这个话题。

DecenTrader 引用了 Puell Multiple（衡量代币发行价值相对于年度移动平均值的指标），触及六年来的最高水平。

多重功能可作为宏观顶部和底部的指导。

它指出：“这导致普埃尔多重得分为+2.4，这在历史上处于较高水平——尽管没有之前周期的峰值那么高。”

比特币普埃尔倍数。<