[涡流]比特币减半是否会吸引更多机构投资者进入加密货币领域？

关于比特币 (BTC) 四年一次的减半事件，目前仍有很多未知之处，该事件使比特币矿工获得的区块奖励减少了 50%，而比特币矿工在验证 BTC 交易和保护系统安全方面发挥着关键作用。

矿工会破产还是逃离网络？

算力会崩溃吗？

比特币价格会先涨后跌吗？

减半会刺激加密货币的进一步采用吗？

等等。

但有一点是确定的：每隔四年，矿工的区块奖励就会减少一半——这是预先编码到网络中的——并且在 2024 年 4 月的某个时候，一旦第 210,000 个区块被验证，矿工的奖励将从每个区块 6.25 BTC 至 3.125。

所有的减半都相似又不同，但今年的减半可能是独一无二的，因为一月份推出的新现货市场比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）帮助将比特币的价格推至历史新高，使加密货币整个行业的市值接近 3 万亿美元。

这就提出了另一个问题：鉴于比特币ETF似乎让许多机构开始关注比特币作为替代资产，四月份的减半是否会加速这一趋势？

有些人这么认为。

Swan Bitcoin 业务主管 Dante Cook 告诉 Cointelegraph：“机构仍在了解这一资产类别，但了解比特币的货币政策只会引发更多兴趣。”

减半是一个重要的证明，“尽管‘安全预算’较低，但比特币安全仍可以继续，”卢克索科技公司首席运营官 Ethan Vera 告诉 Cointelegraph，并补充道：

“我们预计机构对基础商品以及在该领域运营的公司（例如矿商）将持续产生兴趣。”

B. Riley Securities 高级董事总经理 Joe Nardini 补充道，对于想要购买代币本身的机构来说，将整体奖励减少一半可以说是一种诱惑。

Nardini 告诉 Cointelegraph，更多证据表明 BTC 供应量不会激增，这对许多潜在机构投资者来说是“净利好”。

然而，并非所有人都认为减半本身就会让考虑加密货币的大公司或金融机构加入比特币。

Stifel Financial 投资银行总监 Ruben Sahakyan 告诉 Cointelegraph：“减半不会影响大公司/机构投资者是否会首次投资比特币。”

Sahakyan 继续说道，投资者显然已经接受了现货市场比特币 ETF（从净流入来看），进一步明确监管将有助于推动行业采用和投资者基础。

“然而，一些投资者在投资矿业股时持观望态度，因为他们等待减半对矿商盈利能力和波动性的影响减少。”

Others suggested that halvings may not be quite as they used to be, i.e., fraught with drama.

“The halving is likely not as big an event as the industry is well prepared and has been deleveraging in anticipation of the potentially reduced economics,” Taras Kulyk, founder and CEO of SunnySide Digital, an infrastructure provider, told Cointelegraph. “Additionally, the massive growth of L2 technologies on top of the Bitcoin Network has increased transaction fees — blunting the impact of the halving even more.”

A “halving-induced” upswing?

Historically, Bitcoin has risen in price in the months leading up to a halving, which is happening again in 2024. Indeed, a JPMorgan analyst referred at the end of February to a “Bitcoin-halving-induced euphoria” gripping the crypto market. But is that really the case?

“There are two major narratives and drivers for Bitcoin currently,” Chris Kuiper, director of research at Fidelity Digital Assets (FDA), told Cointelegraph. The first is the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETPs [exchange-traded products], which was a major milestone in Bitcoin’s history and a continued road to adoption.”

The second, Kuiper continued, is the upcoming halving. “As in the past, it’s expected that there will be little effect on the Bitcoin network itself. We may see an initial fall in hash rate, but it will likely only be a matter of time before it recovers to its previous levels and once again moves higher, which wouldn’t affect the operation of the network.”

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Which of these two events is more impactful? We don’t know if the price surge results from the halving or the spot market Bitcoin ETF approvals, B. Riley Securities’ Nardini said, but it’s more likely “ETF induced,” in his opinion.

The JPMorgan analyst also warned the price of Bitcoin could drop to $42,000 after the halving. That, too, would follow the script of past halvings. Hash rate — the overall computing power of the network — is what makes the Bitcoin network more secure. In the past three halvings (2020, 2016, and 2012), the hash rate fell initially but quickly recovered within six to 31 days.

“What is different today from historical halvings are the ETFs, which have dramatically changed the Bitcoin ecosystem,” Clark Swanson, entrepreneur and former CEO of Bitcoin mining firm Blockcap, told Cointelegraph.

The new ETFs have created a “demand shock to Bitcoin’s limited supply,” said Swanson. This will “drive prices even higher and blunt some of the market forces that have traditionally posed challenges for miners.”

“Post halving, there is going to be exactly 50% less Bitcoin produced — or available for sale — while ETF demand seems to remain, which should continue to drive volatility,” agreed Sahakyan. “Some of the miners have again started building up BTC balance sheets, which further reduces the available supply of Bitcoin.”

Others, however, anticipate some surprises. Aki Balogh, co-founder and CEO of DLC.Link, told Cointelegraph that “the supply shock that will come from reduced mining revenues is real and will play some effect.”

Some of that has already been priced in, “but there are unknown second and third-derivative effects that will only come out after the halving has happened,” continued Balogh. Still, “I think scarcity will push the price up somewhat.”

In the longer term, history suggests the hash rate will recover, and the price of Bitcoin continue its ascent to new heights. The halving is a unique situation where the block reward periodically decreases, and in this way, “the inflation rate of the netwo